Global warming projections remain at a 2.7-degree Celsius rise by 2100 above pre-industrial levels.
Climate Action Tracker reports at COP29 that their climate system models see no improvement since 2021 from global mean temperature mitigation actions, as current policies continue to highlight the gap between climate urgency talks and climate action.
“Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, our annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.”
Current policies or business-as-usual scenarios risk a 33% chance of mean temperatures rising above 3.0 °C by 2100 and a 10% chance of exceeding 3.6 °C above pre-industrial levels.
Though renewable energy and electric vehicle deployment have seen great improvement lately, big economies continue to use fossil fuels to meet high energy demands. According to UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024, greenhouse gas emissions have risen 1.3 % from 2022 to 2023 as data shows that they reached a record high of 57.1 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent.
The report highlights China, the United States, India, the European Union, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, and COP Troika countries (UAE, Azerbaijan, Brazil) as needing to take drastic measures in their latest nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to curb high emissions. The data shows that these alone account for 63% of total global emissions.
The UAE hosted COP28, while Azerbaijan hosts this year’s UNFCCC Climate Summit (COP29), both major producers of fossil fuels. This move to host international climate change talks in fossil fuel-dependent countries has drawn massive criticism from environmental movements and climate scientists.
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China continues to lead in global emissions with 29.2%, almost three times more than the US’s 11.2% and four times higher than India, the third-largest emitter, at 7.3%.
Indonesia’s emissions share is at 2.3%, Japan at 2.2%, and Australia at 1.1%, making them other major emitters.
“As the world edges closer to these dangerous climate thresholds, the need for immediate, stronger action to reverse this trend becomes ever more urgent,”
says report lead author Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics (Climate Action Tracker partner organization) in the press release.
“… our knowledge of the climate system tells us that there is a 33% chance of our projection being 3.0°C – or higher – and a 10% chance of being 3.6°C or higher, an absolutely catastrophic level of warming.”
