AI Brings Early Monsoon Forecasts to Farmers
Monsoons are the lifeline of South Asia. They water crops, recharge rivers, and sustain nearly half of India’s population that depends on agriculture. But in recent years, monsoons have become unpredictable. At times, it arrives late. At others, it is early and it brings intense downpours in a short span of time.
The erratic behavior of the South Asian monsoon has been linked with human-caused climate change. The South Asian monsoon sustains nearly two billion people by pouring rainfall that is required for farming, water, and the economic stability of the population, according to research.
For farmers, that uncertainty can wipe out an entire season.
This year, India’s Ministry of Agriculture tried something new. For the first time, AI-powered forecasting was used to send early monsoon predictions directly to farmers’ phones.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoAFW), nearly 3.8 crore farmers across 13 states received AI-based weather updates this year via SMS through the m-Kisan platform.
The system provided rainfall forecasts up to four weeks in advance. This gave the growers more time to plan sowing and manage risks when rainfall came.
The program relied on advanced models like Google’s NeuralGCM and ECMWF’s AIFS. These models proved more accurate than traditional weather tools in capturing a critical 20-day monsoon stall this year. This is significant because such pauses often mislead farmers into planting too early and in return exposing crops to dry spells.
“This program harnesses the revolution in AI-based weather forecasting to predict the arrival of continuous rains, empowering farmers to plan agricultural activities with greater confidence and manage risks,” said Additional Secretary Dr. Pramod Kumar Meherda in the press release.
Why It Matters
Climate change is reshaping rainfall patterns. Studies show that the Indian monsoon has become increasingly erratic over the past three decades. These changes are characterized by more frequent floods, droughts, and an uneven distribution of rainfall.
For a country where most of the farmland is rain-fed, better forecasts are vital.
AI cannot stop climate change but it can certainly help people be better prepared for the impacts. Accurate early warnings allow farmers to:
- Decide when to sow seeds.
- Conserve water and fertilizer.
- Protect vulnerable crops from heavy rains or dry stretches.
India is not alone. Similar AI-based climate forecasting tools are being tested and employed in other regions as well. In regions like Africa and South Asia, smallholder farmers face the same challenge of erratic rainfall.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has called early warning systems one of the most effective climate adaptation strategies worldwide. According to the organization, “the damage caused by a disaster can be reduced by 30% if an early warning is issued within 24 hours.”
A recent study notes that “Early Warning Systems (EWS) are essential tools for alleviating the effects of natural hazards, particularly floods, cyclones, and droughts, by giving early warnings and actionable information.”
The AI forecast projects are still in its early stages.
