According to the Global Carbon Budget 2024 report, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use are projected to rise by 0.8% in 2024. Despite considerate progress made in clean energy, growth in gas and oil use drives this increase.
Fossil fuel emissions were up 1.4% in 2023. Countries at COP28 in the UAE pledged to reduce fossil fuel use in the UAE Consensus.
UN states that emissions need to drop 43% by 2030, and must peak before 2025 at the least, to meet the 1.5°C target set by nations in the Paris Agreement in 2015. However, fossil fuel use is still increasing almost a decade after the agreement was ratified by close to 200 countries and is in force since 2016.
The Paris Agreement set the ambitious target to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To achieve the target, Parties to the Agreement at the 2015 COP under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to take drastic action to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
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This year’s UN Climate Summit, COP29, focuses on mobilizing trillions annually in climate finance for developing nations. The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) is one of the main agendas of the 29th session of COP for climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts from 2025 onwards.
The Global Carbon Budget2024 reports 37.4 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) emissions from fossil fuel use in 2024, with annual gas usage projected to see a rise of 2.4%, oil 0.9%, and coal 0.2%.
The report adds that preliminary data suggest an increase of 2.8 ppm in atmospheric CO2 concentration, taking the global total to hit 422.5 ppm, up from 419.3 ppm in 2023.
This shows an increase of 52% above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm in 1750).
According to the report, total CO2 emissions, combining fossil fuels and land-use change, have plateaued over the past decade and are projected at 41.6 GtCO2 for 2024.
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While growth in the last decade has slowed compared to the 2% annual rise from 2004-2013, this progress is insufficient to reverse global emissions.
The report headlines “No clear signs of peak in global fossil CO2 emissions yet.”
China continues to have the largest carbon footprint as emissions continue to rise due to high energy demand. Meanwhile, U.S. emissions are down slightly as coal declines but gas use has risen. Coal emissions rise in India and China but fall in the EU and USA. Oil emissions are on a rising trend in 2024 overall (0.9% projection), mainly driven by aviation, shipping, and rising demand in India. Natural gas emissions increase in China, the USA, and India but show drops in the EU.
Deforestation emissions increased due to El Niño’s impact, especially from Brazil, Indonesia, and the Congo.
2023 and 2024 are the warmest years on record, leading to dry weather patterns, drought conditions, and wildfires in key regions.
Fossil fuel expansion persists in many key regions of the world. Many new oil and gas projects continue to defy COP28 commitments, especially the UAE Consensus.
COP29 host Azerbaijan plans major gas expansion.
Renewable energy transition and new finance goals are set to play a major role in reducing emissions and combating the climate change crisis.
