Climate Change
By Javed Baloch - Source: Met Office Dated 18/12/2024
2024 is now sees a 99% certainty to break records as the hottest year on record. However, Met Office predicts 2025 could be cooler and have lower average global temperatures compared to 2023 and 2024.
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This dip in temperature wouldn't be due to the slowdown in climate change or ozone effect. Instead, it will be driven by the ocean cycles, particularly because of the transition from El Niño to La Niña event.
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The record-breaking temperatures in 2023 and 2024 were partly due to El Niño the natural climate event which has now subsided. El Niño is partly responsible in raising global temperatures by warming the tropical Pacific.
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Despite this, 2025 is likely to rank among the three warmest years on record with 2024 and 2023. This prediction comes from the Met Office outlook for 2025 report. In fact, 2024 is first year on record to breach the 1.5 degree Celsius target of Paris Agreement.
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In 2025, the global average temperature is forecasted to be between 1.29°C and 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, with an central estimate at 1.41°C, Met Office estimates shows.
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If predictions for 2025 temperatures hold true, this would mark the 12th consecutive year with temperatures at least 1°C above pre-industrial averages. Global warming is real. Climate change crisis is upon us.
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Why Will 2025 Be Cooler? Well, El Niño years, like 2023/24, temporarily raise global average temperatures by about 0.2°C. In contrast, La Niña years—expected in 2025—cause slight cooling.
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El Niño and La Niña Difference? El Niño: Warms the tropical Pacific - when temperatures rise 0.5C above the long-term average. It raise global temp. La Niña: Cools the tropical Pacific, slightly reducing global temp.
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Global temperatures rise by about 0.2°C during El Niño events and drop by about 0.2°C during La Niña. Noteworthy, the overall trend of rising temperatures is driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Human activities, right!
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